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Monthly Archives

January 2014

BlackRock Global Survey of Institutional Investors

By Market Outlook

Institutions Are Poised to Increase Real Estate and Real Asset Allocations

Institutions Will Move out of Cash, Growing Role for Hedge Funds and Private Equity

Major institutional investors around the world are poised to increase their allocations to alternative investments, with a bias towards real estate and real assets, during 2014, according to a global survey of institutions conducted by BlackRock.

Approximately half of institutions surveyed– 49 percent – expect to increase their real estate allocation and over 40 percent indicated they will increase their investment in real assets this year. At the same time, about one-third of the institutional investors surveyed intend to reduce their cash holdings in 2014.

“Institutional investors are seeking to build portfolios better suited for an investment landscape characterized by low yields, sluggish growth, volatile markets, and rising correlation between stocks and bonds,” said Robert Goldstein, Senior Managing Director and head of BlackRock’s Institutional Client Business and BlackRock Solutions.

“Divergent economic and geopolitical conditions globally offer institutions a menu of real estate and real asset opportunities that meet a variety of investment objectives,” said Goldstein.

“In real estate, while core, income producing investments in developed markets are still in favor because of their liquidity and safe cash flows, we anticipate that institutions looking for income-producing alternatives will turn their attention to more opportunistic real estate investments outside their home markets,” said Goldstein.

“We’re also seeing a growing interest in infrastructure debt. These types of investments can potentially offer institutions high fixed yields, with stable cash flows and long duration.”

Seeking Out Better “Portfolio Buffers”

“The results of the survey likely reflect a recognition that, going forward, the portfolio diversification benefit traditionally offered by equities and bonds might be less powerful than in the past,” Goldstein said. “Indeed, the price correlation between US equities and bonds, which had been negative from 2009 through mid-2013, has been positive ever since then – suggesting that institutions definitely will be looking to other asset classes for more effective ‘portfolio buffers’ in coming months.”

A Growing Interest in Hedge Funds and Private Equity

“Within the alternatives category, we believe hedge funds and private equity also will command a growing role in institutional portfolios in 2014, with investors casting a wide net for appropriate diversification tools,” said Goldstein.

Nearly 30 percent of institutions surveyed intend to increase their hedge fund allocations this year.

In the Americas, over 40 percent of institutions are likely to increase their hedge fund allocation; none is planning a decrease. The trend is less true for EMEA, where 35 percent of institutions intend to allocate less to hedge funds and just 20 percent will allocate more.

Approximately one-third of institutions surveyed anticipate allocating more to private equity. Private equity is less popular with EMEA institutions and smaller investors (those with less than $20 billion in AUM), with these investors indicating they will either maintain or reduce current private equity allocations.

About the Survey

BlackRock surveyed approximately 100 institutional investors representing the firm’s Americas, Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA), and Asia-Pacific (APAC) markets, including corporate and private pension funds, insurers, investment managers, and government entities. In total, the investors surveyed represent more than $6 trillion in assets under management (AUM), with an average AUM of $70 billion.

About BlackRock

BlackRock is a leader in investment management, risk management and advisory services for institutional and retail clients worldwide. At December 31, 2013, BlackRock’s AUM was $4.324 trillion. BlackRock helps clients meet their goals and overcome challenges with a range of products that include separate accounts, mutual funds, iShares® (exchange-traded funds), and other pooled investment vehicles. BlackRock also offers risk management, advisory and enterprise investment system services to a broad base of institutional investors through BlackRockSolutions®. Headquartered in New York City, as of December 31, 2013, the firm had approximately 11,400 employees in more than 30 countries and a major presence in key global markets, including North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and the Middle East and Africa. For additional information, please visit the Company’s website at www.blackrock.com.

Disclaimer

This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice. Investing in alternative investments involves higher risks than traditional investments and may not be suitable for all investors. Alternative investments may be highly leveraged and engage in speculative investment techniques, which an magnify the potential for investment loss or gain.

BlackRock® is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

 

Average Monthly Dispersion of S&P 500 Returns

By Uncategorized

Ave-monthly-dispersion-SP-500

 

The average dispersion between S&P 500® stocks over the twelve months of the year was just below 5%, which is the lowest value across the 23-year data.

In such circumstances, the relative value of active management in the equity markets is constrained.  Simply put, accurate bets deliver less alpha.

Fed Tapering Expected Timeline

By Uncategorized

U.S. Fed Reserve Bank Credit Outstanding

 

The Fed has begun tapering asset purchases, starting with $10 billion in January, split evenly between U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. If the Fed continues to taper by an additional $10 billion at each meeting, QE3 would end in October 2014, still providing liquidity throughout most of the year. The Fed is expected to keep short-term rates near zeor until at least 2015.

China becomes the largest global trading nation…

By General

China’s imports rose the most in five months in December, indicating that domestic demand will support economic growth, as the government claimed the title of the world’s biggest trader of goods.

Inbound shipments advanced 8.3 percent from a year earlier, the customs administration said today in Beijing. Exports rose 4.3 percent, a pace that may be distorted by fake invoices. The trade surplus was $25.6 billion.

Improving demand will help support expansion amid risks from rising domestic debt and the impact of President Xi Jinping’s broadest policy reforms since the 1990s. While China said today it passed the U.S. to become the top trading nation in 2013, the government highlighted challenges for exporters including gains in the yuan and increased labor costs.

China already ranked No. 1 in goods exports in 2012 and was the second-biggest importer behind the U.S., according to the World Trade Organization’s annual report on international trade statistics. With $2.08 trillion in inbound shipments through November, the U.S. was poised to remain the world’s biggest importer in 2013.

China was fifth in exports of commercial services in 2012, behind the U.S., U.K., Germany andFrance, the WTO said. China was No. 3 in imports of services, behind the U.S. and Germany.

In economic size, China remains second to the U.S., with gross domestic product of about $8.2 trillion last year, about half that of the U.S.

The yuan rose 2.9 percent against the dollar last year, the most of 11 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg. It touched 6.050 earlier today, matching the level reached on Jan. 2, which was the strongest since the government unified the market and official exchange rates at the end of 1993.

The economy may have expanded 7.6 percent in 2013, according to a State Council report last month, the weakest pace in 14 years. Growth will slow to 7.4 percent in 2014, based on the median estimate of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last month, which would be the lowest since 1990.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Number of the Day: 1/10/2014

By Uncategorized

281%

The stock of a little-known biotech company, Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc., went up 281% on Thursday after the company’s liver-disease drug performed well in a clinical trial, marking the biggest one-day stock leap among Nasdaq Composite companies of a similar size since at least 2012.

(Source: Wall Street Journal)