Monthly Archives: December 2014

Dow posts its 6th consecutive positive year in 2014

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday fell 160 points, or 0.89%, to 17823. Still, the Dow was up 7.5% in 2014, its sixth-consecutive yearly gain. The S&P 500 declined 21.45 points, or 1.03%, to 2058. For the year, it rose 11.4%, its third-straight annual gain. The Nasdaq Composite ticked down 41.39 points, or 0.87%, to 4736. It was up 13.4% in 2014, also marking its third-straight annual gain. (Source: WSJ)...

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Oil declines 46% in 2014. What's in store for 2015?

Oil futures closed the year at more-than five-year lows, as plentiful supplies and tepid demand continued to send prices plunging. Brent crude oil and gasoline futures both posted 48% losses in 2014, making them the worst performers among the 22 commodity markets tracked by the Bloomberg Commodity Index. U.S. oil futures dropped 46% in the year. Brent crude futures settled down 57 cents, or 1%, at $57.33 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange, the lowest level since May 15, 2009. On the...

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Endowment Index™ Closes at 1,032.91 to end 2014

The Endowment Index™ calculated by Nasdaq OMX® (Symbol: ENDOW on Google Finance) closed at 1032.91 on Wednesday December 31, 2014. The Endowment Index™ was launched on May 19, 2014 with an initial value of 1,000. The December 31, 2013 backtested indicative Endowment Index™ value was 983.49. The Endowment Index™ measures performance for a multi-asset, globally-diversified, three-dimensional portfolio that includes Global Equity, Global Income, and Alternative Investments (like Private...

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Will the S&P 500 continue its 6 year winning streak in 2015?

Going back to the late-1920s that would be tied for the third longest streak of all time. The longest streak was from 1991 to 1999 when the market reeled off 9 years of gains in a row. The second longest run of positive annual returns were from 1982 to 1989 when stocks rose for 8 straight years. Not only is the S&P up 6 years in a row, but it’s also up 11 of the past 12. In those 12 years the S&P 500 is up 9.6% per year, right at the long-term average. ...

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A Macro View – The “Patient” Fed

In the statement after the FOMC meeting of December 17th, the Federal Reserve Bank (“Fed”) states that “it can be patient to normalize the stance of monetary policy,” a change from the statement of the previous meeting (October 29th) that “it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 0.25 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program.”  During the press conference following the statement, Ms. Yellen furt...

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Endowment Wealth Management Weekly Capital Markets Update for Week Ended 12/19/2014

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: •Domestic stock prices surged this week. Broad equity indices rallied sharply this week, as investors took encouragement from the Federal Reserve’s statement that it would be patient in deciding when to raise interest rates. The Fed’s statement was a reflection of the severe drop in oil prices, which is an indicator, albeit a volatile one, of economic growth. The week’s gains pushed the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the month of December. ...

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Endowment Index™ posts gain for week ended December 19, 2014

The Endowment Index™ calculated by Nasdaq OMX®  (Symbol: ENDOW on Google Finance) closed at 1,033.24 on Friday, December 19, 2014, posting a 2.35% increase from the close of 1,009.44 on Friday, December 12, 2014.  The Endowment Index™ measures performance for a multi-asset, globally-diversified, three-dimensional portfolio that includes Global Equity, Global Income, and Alternative Investments (like Private Equity, Hedge Funds and Real Assets).   Past performance is not necessa...

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U.S. Inflation Watch-November 2014

The Labor Dept. reported yesterday that the index of consumer prices was down 0.3% in November and was up 1.3% year over year vs. 1.7% in October. Much of the decline was due to falling gasoline prices which make up about 5% of the index and were down 11% year over year. This was the biggest one month drop since December 2008. Excluding food and energy core CPI rose 0.1% in November and 1.7% year over year. With gasoline prices expected to fall further this index is most likely on a downward p...

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Oil and Inflation

What will be the impact of the recent oil price decline on inflation and when will it be reflected in the CPI data? The following article talks about the Billion Prices Project, which is forecasting a steep decline in headline inflation numbers. Is there a new deflationary pulse that is beatinge across global economies? Oil is Dragging Prices Down Faster than Official Price Index can Capture (Source: WSJ)...

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Endowment Wealth Management Weekly Capital Markets Update for Week Ended 12/12/2014

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic stock prices were sharply lower this week. Broad equity indices suffered their worst weekly decline in two months, partly a result of the severe drop in crude oil prices. The decline in energy indicates a slowdown in worldwide demand, which analysts fear will lead to slower economic growth.  The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index soared about 70% this week. Global markets were also broadly lower on the week. World markets slumped as wel...

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