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2013: High Level Asset Class Returns

By December 31, 2013No Comments

U.S. Stocks Close Year With Broad Gains; Dow Notches Best Performance in 18 Years

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 72.37 points, or 0.4%, to 16576.66, closing at a record high for the 52nd time this year.

The S&P 500 rose 7.29 points, or 0.4%, to 1848.36. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 22.39 points, or 0.5%, to 4176.59. Stock trading will be closed Wednesday for New Year’s Day.

In a year fraught with apparent headwinds, including the prospects of reduced Federal Reserve stimulus and a federal government shutdown, the Dow climbed 27% for its best annual performance since 1995. Bulls point to continued earnings and profit growth—albeit at a slow pace. Some say attractive investments outside of equities were scarce. Bond yields remain low by historical standards and returns could suffer if interest rates rise, weighing on bond prices.

Moreover, investors shrugged off the start of the Fed’s plan announced this month to “taper,” or scale back, its stimulus program. Stocks rose for a fourth-straight month in December, rebounding from a bout of weakness before the central bank’s policy meeting in the middle of the month.

The Dow’s annual gain was its fifth-straight, the longest such stretch since a nine-year rally through 1999. The S&P 500 gained 30% in 2013, its best year since 1997.

Measures of small companies’ shares performed even better. The Russell 2000 index of small companies’ shares rallied 37% this year, its biggest such rally since 2003.

U.S. Treasury Prices Fall, Closing Out Losing Year; Largest Sovereign-Debt Market Gives Investors 2.6% Drop In Total Return in 2013

U.S. Treasury bonds ended the last trading session of 2013 on a down note as the latest government data on housing and consumers brightened the economic outlook, capping the biggest annual loss for government bonds in five years.

The benchmark 10-year note’s price was down 13/32 at the end of the shortened session at 2 p.m. EST, according to Tradeweb. The note’s yield rose to 3.03% after hitting as high as 3.036%, the highest level since July 2011.

The yield, a key reference for long-term interest rates for consumers, banks and companies in the U.S. and abroad, climbed from 1.76% at the end of 2012. That represents the biggest calendar-year increase since 2009, the last time the bond market posted a negative annual return.

When bond yields rise, their prices fall.

Gold Falls 28% in 2013, Ends 12-Year Bull Run; Gold Prices Lock in Largest Annual Decline Since 1981

The precious metal retreated 28% in 2013 as many investors tried to anticipate when the U.S. Federal Reserve might cut its monthly bond purchases, which would remove a long-running support from the gold market. Many investors purchased gold as a hedge against a weaker U.S. dollar and inflation, two risks associated with the accommodative monetary policies.

Investors of all stripes slashed their gold holdings in 2013. Physical gold held by exchange-traded funds, which buy and store the metal on investors’ behalf, fell from 84.58 million troy ounces at the start of the year to 57.7 million ounces on Dec. 31, which is the lowest level of gold ETF holdings since 2009.

One exception has been gold coin buyers, who stepped up purchases from the U.S. Mint by 14% in 2013, data from the agency show. April was the Mint’s busiest month for gold coin sales, with more than 200,000 ounces of gold coins sold to dealers as gold prices posted their worst two-day decline since 1974.

Gold for February delivery, the most actively traded contract, settled down $1.50, or 0.1%, at $1,202.30 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold for January delivery, the front-month contract, fell $1.20, or 0.1%, to close at $1,201.90 a troy ounce.

Natural Gas Finishes 2013 As Best-Performing Commodity; Tuesday’s 4.5% Slump Barely Dents Banner Year

Natural-gas futures rose 26% this year, their biggest one-year rise since 2005 and the largest percentage gain for any commodity in 2013. After a relatively mild winter last year reduced demand for gas-powered heating in homes and offices, this winter started off unusually cold and wintry weather has persisted.

About half of all U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel, with natural-gas prices having climbed from less than $3.50/mmBtu in early November due to robust heating demand.

Unusually large amounts of natural gas have been withdrawn from storage in recent weeks, a sign of strong demand. Inventories as of Dec. 20 stood at 3.071 trillion cubic feet, 16% below the exceptionally high year-ago level and 9.2% below the five-year average for the week.

Corn Finishes Year as Worst-Performing Commodity on S&P GSCI; Prices Plunged in 2014 as U.S. Production Surged to Record 13.989 Billion Bushels

Corn futures fell on the last trading day of 2013, bringing this year’s loss to 40% and making the grain the worst performer on the S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities.

Corn prices plunged this year as production in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter of the grain, surged to a record 13.989 billion bushels. Farmers gathered 160.4 bushels an acre from U.S. corn fields, a 30% increase from last year’s drought-ravaged crop, according to the Agriculture Department.

After the U.S. harvest was complete, market-watchers turned their attention to South America, where recent rainfall has improved crop prospects. Precipitation fell overnight in parts of Argentina and is expected to persist in the six- to 15-day period, according to Commodity Weather Group.

Chicago Board of Trade corn futures for March delivery fell 1 1/2 cents, or 0.4%, to $4.22 a bushel on Tuesday, the lowest closing price for the front-month contract since Dec. 13.

(Source: Wall Street Journal)