EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 10/19/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Among equities, small caps outperformed large caps; value stocks beat growth stocks; international stocks trailed US stocks; and emerging markets underperformed developed  markets.
  • Treasury yields edged up. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended the week at around 3.2%.
  • Commodity indices little changed. Gold price rose, whereas crude oil prices fell.
  • Dollar indices rose. The dollar appreciated against most major currencies during the week.
  • Among major economic data, September retail sales rose 0.1% from August, well below expectation; initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 from last week to 210,000; September existing home sales fell 3.4% from August.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 10.19.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 10/11/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Global equities followed the US lead for the week, with European markets down roughly 4% and Asian markets down more than 5%. Emerging markets equities also were down more than 5%, led by China at -6.7%. The Latin American markets were the only positive region for the week, driven by a post-election rally in Brazil.
  • Treasury yields mostly lower. After last week’s sharp rise, Treasury rates fell back in a shortened week of trading. Both 10-year and 30-year yields were down roughly eight basis points to 3.16% and 3.33%, respectively. Treasury notes from 3-months to 1-year were up 2 to 4 basis points.
  • The US Dollar Index was modestly lower on the week. A slight weakening against both the euro and yen was partially offset by strength against the Chinese yuan.
  • Crude oil finished the week down more than 3% after a modest rise in the first half of the week. Falling global equity prices and rising supplies were the driving factors in the Thursday sell-off.
  • Among other economic data released this week: The IMF cut its forecast for global growth by 0.2% to 3.7% for both 2018 and 2019. Several banks opened up the third quarter earnings season with upbeat reports. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and PNC Bank all reported increases in net earnings.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 10.12.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 10/04/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Among equities, large caps outperformed small caps; value stocks beat growth stocks; international stocks trailed US stocks; and emerging markets under-performed developed markets.
  • Treasury yields surged. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped above 3.2%, a 7-year high.
  • Commodity indices rose, driven by rising crude oil prices.
  • Dollar indices rose, driven by surging Treasury yields.
  • Among major economic data, the September unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, a 48-year low; the September non-farm payroll increase was less than expected, but the increase of the previous two months was revised sharply upward; the September ISM  Manufacturing Index remained robust at 59.8, and the September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index jumped to 61.6, a 20-year high.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 10.5.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 09/28/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Domestic equities were mostly down for the week, with small cap stocks falling the most. International equities were mixed for the week, with emerging markets outperforming its developed counterpart.
  • Treasury yields were mostly down through end of day Thursday, with longer-term yields falling more than shorter yields.
  • The US dollar strengthened during the week, as the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) raised rates, and plans to raise rates four more times before the end of 2019.
  • Commodities were up over all, with the price of crude oil continuing to rise over the week, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies decided to maintain their current production targets.
  • In other economic news, the Consumer Confidence Index was released this week, posting a headline number of 138.4, which was an increase from 134.7 in August. The September reading is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000. The strong figure indicates consumers’ favorable outlook on current economic conditions and suggests continued healthy consumer spending.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 9.28.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 09/21/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • US equity markets pushed into record territory after brushing off talk of a renewed trade spat with China. The S&P 500 Index was up nearly 1% for the week, as value stocks led growth stocks across the market capitalization spectrum. Small cap stocks, roughly flat for the week, trailed large cap stocks.
  • Developed non-US markets enjoyed strong gains throughout the week, with the MSCI EAFE Index up more than 2% and value stocks leading growth stocks. The gains came on the back of a weakening dollar, which was down around 1% versus a basket of currencies. Emerging markets also rose during the week, but to a lesser degree than developed markets, and value stocks finished the week significantly ahead of growth stocks. China was able to shake off trade conflict news to finish the week up more than 1.5%.
  • The yield curve shifted upward during the week, with the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note beginning the week at 2.99% and rising to 3.07% on Thursday. That movement also steepened the yield curve slightly, as the yield on the 2-Year Treasury Bill moved only three basis points, from 2.78% to 2.81%. The upward shift in the yield curve was primarily due to increased inflation expectations.
  • Commodities moved higher as well, led by the price of crude oil. Crude oil was pushed higher by news that US stockpiles fell by 2.1 million barrels, marking the fifth consecutive weekly decline and, notably, its lowest level since February of 2015.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 9.21.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 09/14/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Global equity markets were mostly up on the week through Thursday. Developed European markets posted the best returns, which fell in the low-single digits. Greece and India posted the worst returns, falling by over 2%.
  • The Treasury yield curve stayed essentially constant through Thursday. Yields on notes and bonds with maturities longer than two years rose marginally. Inflation decelerated in August, as headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 2.7%. According to data in the US Department of Labor, decelerating medical cost increases, falling apparel prices, and steady food costs led inflation to come in below consensus expectations. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy price shifts, also fell below expectations and increased 2.2% year over year through August.
  • Commodities were broadly up on the week. Energy, Livestock, and Precious and Industrial Metals rose through Thursday. Agriculture fell, as declining corn, soy, and wheat prices pulled this sector down due to robust harvest projections.
  • The US Dollar fell this week against a basket of major trade partners’ currencies. However, the US Dollar Index remains stronger than it was at any point in 2018 prior to July.
  • In other economic news: The Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) assets totaled $4.211 trillion on September 12. This figure is up slightly from last week, as reserves rose and the mortgage-backed security (MBS) roll-off has fallen behind schedule, but is down roughly $250 billion from October 2017, when the Fed began to trim its balance sheet. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index stands at a record high.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 9.14.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 09/07/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Among equities, Italy was the only winner for the week, as shares slid globally. US shares were down roughly 1%, depending on market cap, whereas European markets were down 2%-3%. Emerging markets continued to struggle, down nearly 4% on the week, led by Greece, which was down more than 7%.
  • Treasury yields jumped. Treasury yields were higher by two to five basis points across the yield curve before the employment report was released Friday morning. After the release, yields rose an additional five to eight basis points in early trading.
  • The US Dollar Index was largely unchanged at the end of a relatively volatile week. A modest rally early in the week was reversed on Wednesday and Thursday, as investors waited for the release of Friday’s jobs report. Subsequent to the release, the dollar strengthened slightly against most major currencies.
  • Crude oil continued to slide from its recent peak of $70 in late August. Concerns over falling demand, due to trade disputes between the US and China and economic issues in the emerging markets, overshadowed expected supply disruptions over the next few months.
  • Among other economic data released this week: Both the ISM Manufacturing Index and the ISM Services Index jumped higher in July. The Manufacturing Index jumped nearly 3% to 61.3, and the Services Index was up 2.8% to 58.5. Unemployment rate remains unchanged; average wages jumped. The Department of Labor announced the US created 201,000 new jobs in August, in line with forecasts, and the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9%. The big news in the report was the rise in average hourly earnings, which moved from 2.7% to 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis. This is the highest level since June of 2009. However, inflation is also up 2.9% over the trailing 12 months, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 9.7.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 08/31/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Domestic equities traded mostly higher over the week, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for their third straight weekly gain. Growth stocks mostly outperformed value, and large cap mostly outpaced small cap. International and emerging markets trailed domestic equities.
  • The yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note ended slightly higher on the week, after trading up to 2.9% mid-week before closing back around 2.85%.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell commented from the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium that the central bank would likely continue with its policy tightening if the economy continued to strengthen, but that a gradual approach would remain appropriate.
  • India GDP growth hit 8.2% in the April-June quarter, its highest level in more than two years. The growth was on the back of strong core performance in manufacturing, construction, and public administration.
  • Among major economic data, initial jobless claims rose last week, increasing by 3,000 to 213,000. China’s manufacturing sector reported an improvement, with Manufacturing PMC at 51.3, up from 51.2 in July. US second-quarter Growth Domestic Product (GDP) growth revised to 4.2%. The second reading of GDP growth was revised up slightly from 4.1%. This growth is the fastest since Q3-2014, and follows a 2.2% increase in Q1. Strength from business spending on software coupled with fewer imports offset a revision to consumer spending.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 8.31.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 08/17/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy | No Comments

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Global equity markets have been mixed this week. US markets are mostly flat, but value stocks have managed small gains; international stocks are down, and emerging markets continue to experience significant declines.
  • Treasury yields have remained flat this week, with the yield on the key 10-Year US Treasury Note trading near 2.85%.
  • Commodity prices were mixed for the week. Crude oil prices finished the week lower, and grain prices were higher for the week.
  • Among economic data released this week, housing data was mixed, with the NAHB Housing Market Index coming in above forecasts, and both housing starts and building permits increased from prior readings but fell short of expectations. Consumer Sentiment softened, with the Michigan Sentiment Index for August declining to 95.3, its lowest level in nearly a year. However, Leading Economic Indicators ticked up to 0.6% versus expectations of 0.5%.
  • Turkey remained in the headlines, as investors continue to worry the situation could begin to affect additional countries and cause contagion. Emerging markets were affected, experiencing broad declines throughout the week. Adding fuel to the fire is the diplomatic dispute between the US and Turkey. Last week, the US doubled tariffs on metal imports from Turkey, and this week, President Trump has threatened additional sanctions over the detainment of an American Evangelical pastor on terrorism charges.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 8.17.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 08/10/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy | No Comments

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Global equity markets were mostly up on the week through Thursday. Of major markets, Russia and Latin America lagged the most, returning -4.2% and -3.5%, respectively. On the other end, China was the market leader for the week along with other major markets in Asia.
  • The Treasury yield flattened modestly through Thursday. Yields on notes and bonds with maturities longer than three years decreased slightly, while shorter-term maturities saw a slight increase.
  • Commodities were slightly positive for the week. Energy and Gold were the largest detractors through Thursday., whereas Agriculture fared much better.
  • The US Dollar rose this week against a basket of major trade partners’ currencies. The index has experienced somewhat of a rally off lows from earlier in the year, as it seems the currency may be “winning” the trade war..
  • In other economic news: The Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) balance sheet is up $2.4 billion for the week, and assets reside at $4.258 trillion in total. However, they are down $202.4 billion from the balance sheet unwinding that began in October 2017.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 8.10.18