EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 12/14/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

US equities traded sideways most of the week, but succumbed to global growth worries on Friday to close the week in red. Emerging markets also lost ground for the week, affected by China’s economic data miss. The weaker-than-expected economic data pushed European stocks lower on Friday, but they still managed to log a small increase for the week.

Treasury yields ticked higher across the curve, with the yield on the 10-year note up four basis points. The yield curve continued to flatten. curve with the yield on the 10-year note up four basis points. The yield curve continued to flatten.

The dollar gained ground during the week, reflecting investor fears of an economic slowdown in China,and was further supported by weakness in the euro and pound.

Commodity prices fell on concerns of weaker demand and a stronger dollar. Energy continued to face weakness on fears of oversupply and slower demand coming from China. Gold also eased as the dollar rose.

US producer prices unexpectedly rose in November, as increases in the costs for services offset a sharp decline for energy products. The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2% from the prior month and 2.2% from a year earlier. Initial jobless claims dropped to 206,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 233,000.


Click here to download the complete weekly report: https://www.endowmentwm.com/wp-content/uploads/EWMWeeklyReview-12.14.18.pdf

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 12/07/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

Domestic equities were down for the week, with small cap stocks falling the most. International equities ended the week in negative territory as well, with emerging markets stocks outperforming their developed counterparts.

Treasury yields were mixed through end of day Thursday, with longer-term yields falling more than ten basis points, whereas shorter yields rose, leading to a flatter yield curve.

The US dollar weakened during the week, as the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note fell to three-month lows.

Commodities were up over all, on the back of a strong upward movement in the price of crude oil, after a surprising announcement that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will cut production more than expected.

In other economic news, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released the November Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and reported a headline composite number of 60.7, up .04 since last month. This represents continued growth, and at a slightly faster rate, in the non-manufacturing sector.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: 

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 11/16/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Among equities, small caps essentially matched the return of large caps; growth stocks under performed value stocks; international stocks outperformed US stocks; and emerging markets beat developed markets.
  • Treasury yields fell. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury Note ended the week at around 3.1%.
  • Commodity indices rebounded. Although crude oil prices plunged, most other commodity prices rose.
  • Dollar indices declined. After reaching an 18-month high early in the week, the dollar ended the week lower against most other currencies.
  • Among major economic data, October headline CPI rose 2.5% year over year, matching expectation; October core CPI rose 2.1% year over year, slightly below expectation; October retail sales surged, jumping 0.8% from September.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 11.16.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 11/09/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Stocks pushed higher in US equity markets despite a moderate pullback on Friday, whereas growth and value stocks produced similar results. Meanwhile, large cap outperformed small cap stocks. Non-US developed equities also rose for the week, albeit to a lesser degree than their US counterparts, and value outperformed growth stocks. In emerging markets, stocks were slightly lower for the week, as Latin American equities sold off sharply, led by Brazil, which was one of the worst-performing markets around the globe.
  • Treasury yields were stable for the week, as the curve slightly flattened. Yields shorter than 10 years rose marginally, whereas yields on the 20- and 30 year notes fell. Overall, moves in the yield curve were muted, as the Fed decided to hold rates steady, with one more meeting to come before the end of the year.
  • Commodity prices retreated during the week, led by a sharp drop in the price of oil. In fact, oil entered bear market territory, as it was down 21% from its October highs. Global economic growth concerns have dampened the demand outlook and have left market participants searching for a bottom.
  • Volatility declined significantly during the week, as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell more than 10%. The US dollar was slightly higher for the week.
  • Consumer sentiment remained high in the US. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 98.3 in November, which was down from 98.6 in October.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 11.9.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 11/02/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • US and global equities rallied this week after a very disappointing October. US small caps were up 4%, and large caps rose roughly 3%. Europe also rallied more than 3%. Latin America was the laggard for the week, up a little more than 1%, despite a rally of more than 11% in Argentina and nearly 3% in Brazil.
  • Treasury yields move higher. Treasury yields were four to six basis points higher through Thursday for maturities greater than one year. Friday’s jobs report pushed yields another four to five basis points higher.
  • The US Dollar Index ended the week slightly lower. The index rallied through the middle of Wednesday, then sold off sharply Thursday, erasing the week’s gains.
  • Crude oil had its worst week since February, down roughly 2.5%, as the US is expected to announce exemptions for eight countries to continue buying oil from Iran, after US sanctions are applied later this year.
  • Among other economic data released this week: Housing prices were nearly unchanged for the three month period ending August and up 5.5% for the trailing year. Motor vehicle sales topped 17.5 million in October, slightly higher than in September and the best monthly number since last November. October’s employment report is strong across the board. The Department of Labor estimates that 250,000 new jobs were created in October. Every industry group added new jobs, including the beleaguered retail sector. Hourly wages were up 0.2% in the month and, notably, crossed the psychologically important 3.0% level for the trailing 12 months. The strong overall report, and particularly the solid wage growth, makes a December rate hike by the Fed all but certain.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 11.2.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 10/26/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • US equity markets pushed lower, with all major equity asset classes down for the week. Smaller caps outperformed larger capitalization stocks, and growth generally outperformed value. Within international equities, emerging markets outperformed both domestic and international developed markets.
  • Treasury yields fell, as investors fled to safety on concerns of market volatility and the economy. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury Note traded at 3.07% on Friday afternoon.
  • Commodities declined, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index falling 1.3%. Within the index, oil prices turned higher Friday, but were still down for the third week in a row, as global demand concerns weighed on future energy demand.
  • In other economic news, US unemployment claims rose last week, in part due to slowdown effects after hurricanes Florence and Michael. However, the unemployment rate remains near a 45-year low, at 3.7%.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 10.26.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 10/19/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Among equities, small caps outperformed large caps; value stocks beat growth stocks; international stocks trailed US stocks; and emerging markets underperformed developed  markets.
  • Treasury yields edged up. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended the week at around 3.2%.
  • Commodity indices little changed. Gold price rose, whereas crude oil prices fell.
  • Dollar indices rose. The dollar appreciated against most major currencies during the week.
  • Among major economic data, September retail sales rose 0.1% from August, well below expectation; initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 from last week to 210,000; September existing home sales fell 3.4% from August.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 10.19.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 10/11/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Global equities followed the US lead for the week, with European markets down roughly 4% and Asian markets down more than 5%. Emerging markets equities also were down more than 5%, led by China at -6.7%. The Latin American markets were the only positive region for the week, driven by a post-election rally in Brazil.
  • Treasury yields mostly lower. After last week’s sharp rise, Treasury rates fell back in a shortened week of trading. Both 10-year and 30-year yields were down roughly eight basis points to 3.16% and 3.33%, respectively. Treasury notes from 3-months to 1-year were up 2 to 4 basis points.
  • The US Dollar Index was modestly lower on the week. A slight weakening against both the euro and yen was partially offset by strength against the Chinese yuan.
  • Crude oil finished the week down more than 3% after a modest rise in the first half of the week. Falling global equity prices and rising supplies were the driving factors in the Thursday sell-off.
  • Among other economic data released this week: The IMF cut its forecast for global growth by 0.2% to 3.7% for both 2018 and 2019. Several banks opened up the third quarter earnings season with upbeat reports. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and PNC Bank all reported increases in net earnings.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 10.12.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 10/04/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Among equities, large caps outperformed small caps; value stocks beat growth stocks; international stocks trailed US stocks; and emerging markets under-performed developed markets.
  • Treasury yields surged. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped above 3.2%, a 7-year high.
  • Commodity indices rose, driven by rising crude oil prices.
  • Dollar indices rose, driven by surging Treasury yields.
  • Among major economic data, the September unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, a 48-year low; the September non-farm payroll increase was less than expected, but the increase of the previous two months was revised sharply upward; the September ISM  Manufacturing Index remained robust at 59.8, and the September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index jumped to 61.6, a 20-year high.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 10.5.18

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ended 09/28/2018

By | Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates

WEEKLY CAPITAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Domestic equities were mostly down for the week, with small cap stocks falling the most. International equities were mixed for the week, with emerging markets outperforming its developed counterpart.
  • Treasury yields were mostly down through end of day Thursday, with longer-term yields falling more than shorter yields.
  • The US dollar strengthened during the week, as the Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) raised rates, and plans to raise rates four more times before the end of 2019.
  • Commodities were up over all, with the price of crude oil continuing to rise over the week, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies decided to maintain their current production targets.
  • In other economic news, the Consumer Confidence Index was released this week, posting a headline number of 138.4, which was an increase from 134.7 in August. The September reading is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000. The strong figure indicates consumers’ favorable outlook on current economic conditions and suggests continued healthy consumer spending.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 9.28.18