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Weekly Capital Market Updates

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ending 10/11/2019

By Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates
  • US equities rallied at the end of a week of speculation on trade talks between the US and China, up between 1%-2%. Non-US equities also rose, with most major indices up 1%-2%.
  • The yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note jumped to more than 1.70% to close the week with hopes of progress in US/China trade talks. The 3-month/10-year Treasury curve was positive, a change from the inverted yield curve that historically has been a recession indicator.
  • The US dollar finished weaker against a basket of currencies, reflecting both rising expectations of a Fed rate cut later this month and optimism over a limited trade deal with China to close the week.
  • Gold fell about 2% on the week as of Friday’s trading.
  • Oil prices soared upon the news of an alleged missile attack on an Iranian tanker. Brent crude and WTI futures rose between 1.50%-2.00%.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 10.14.19

Disclosure: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ending 10/4/2019

By Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates
  • US equities began the week on a disappointing note on concerns of an economic slowdown, with all broad-level indices in negative territory. However, markets rebounded later in the week in anticipation of employment figures being released. Additionally, large caps outperformed small caps; growth outperformed value; domestic stocks outperformed international stocks; and emerging markets outperformed developed markets.
  • Flight to quality was evident in the fixed income markets earlier last week, as the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury Note, which is highly sensitive to the outlook for Fed policy, fell to 1.38%, its lowest level since 2017. The 10-year Treasury yield declined to 1.53%, while the 30-year Treasury yield tumbled to 2.05% in the aftermath of weak manufacturing data.
  • Oil prices declined throughout the week on news of an unexpected rise in US crude supplies and concerns about overall global demand. The weak economic data led to a rally in gold but hit a roadblock later in the week after optimistic employment figures were released.
  • US Dollar Index traded lower during the week, after scaling a 30-day high on October 1. Since then, it drifted down, as investors lowered their expectations for the Fed to cut rates after Friday’s job report.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 10.7.19

Disclosure: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ending 9/27/19

By Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates
  • US equities experienced some volatility throughout the week, with the S&P 500 Index breaking the 3,000 level on Tuesday but subsequently trending lower. On the domestic front, larger capitalization stocks outperformed small caps, while international developed markets outperformed emerging markets.
  • The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note decreased slightly over the course of the week, settling at a rate around 1.70%.
  • Commodities were generally lower in the week, with oil at the center of investors’ attention. The WTI slipped to its lowest level in a 10-week span as concerns for global demand persisted.
  • Consumer confidence rose in September relative to August levels, according to the University of Michigan’s Index for Consumer Sentiment.
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), a Federal Reserve (the Fed) favorite for measuring inflation, rose slightly on a monthly basis and was up 1.80% year over year for August. This reading is below the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 9.27.19

Disclosure: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ending 9/20/2019

By Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates
  • Among equities, large caps outperformed small caps; value stocks led growth stocks; domestic stocks under performed international stocks; and emerging markets under performed developed markets.
  • Treasury yields trended downward during the week. The yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note fell roughly eight basis points during the week and ended around 1.76%.
  • Commodity indices were mixed during the week. Crude oil prices spiked early in the week but returned to prior-week levels by the week’s end. Natural gas prices marginally declined, while gold and silver prices held roughly flat throughout the week.
  • The US dollar increased over the week despite the Fed lowering interest rates. The resilient US economy and low inflation have bolstered the currency’s safe-haven status.
  • Among economic data released last week, August housing starts surged past expectations, with 1.4 million starts recorded after only 1.3 million were expected. Additionally, jobless claims for the week of September 14 came in lower than consensus estimates, indicating the job market remains robust.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 9.20.19

Disclosure: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ending 9/13/2019

By Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates
  • US equities were generally up for the week on hopes of easing US-China trade tensions.
  • The Yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note rose to 1.87%, a marked increase from a recent low of 1.46% on September 4 last week.
  • The US dollar declined slightly, relative to a basket of major currencies, ahead of expectations for a 25-basis-points rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.
  • Gold prices weakened on news of easing trade tensions and a fresh round of European stimulus.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 9.13.19

Disclosure: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ending 9/6/2019

By Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates
  • US equities traded broadly higher this week, with the indices up between 1% and 2%. Non-US equities also rose, with the regional indices up 1.5%-2.0%.
  • The Yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note drifted higher in the holiday-shortened week. The 3-month / 10-year Treasury curve remains inverted, with the Treasury bill yield roughly 40 basis points higher.
  • The US dollar finished weaker against a basket of currencies, reflecting both rising expectations of a Fed rate cut later this month and renewed optimism over trade talks with China.
  • Gold was down slightly on the week after rallying more than 2% through mid-day Wednesday.
  • Oil prices were up slightly from their pre-holiday close. A sharp rally on Wednesday erased Tuesday’s losses. Prices have been tightly range bound since early August.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 9.9.19

Disclosure: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ending 8/23/2019

By Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates
  • US equities seesawed most of the week on worries about a potential recession in the US as well as an escalation of the trade war with China. The S&P 500 Index lost more than 2.5% on Friday after President Trump ordered US companies to “find an alternative to China,” which followed China’s announcement that it would impose new tariffs on $75 billion of US goods. International equities followed a similar pattern, with both developed and emerging markets erasing earlier gains.
  • Treasury yields increased across the board, with the yield on the 2-year note increasing more than that of the 10-year note. During the week, the yield curve inverted three times.
  • The Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 this month, falling below 50 for the first time in about ten years. The index also was lower than the 50.3 reading forecast by economists in a WSJ survey.
  • The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) ticked up 0.50% from the previous month to 112.2 in July, which signals that the economy will continue to expand in the second half, albeit at a slower pace.
  • The University of Michigan’s preliminary August survey showed that consumer sentiment fell to 92.1 in August from the 98.4 level reached in July. The reading, which was well below the market consensus of 97.2, was the lowest since January, and reflects growing concerns of an economic downturn and stock market volatility.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 8.26.19

Disclosure: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ending 8/16/2019

By Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates
  • Emerging markets hit a rough patch. Argentina showed it was not immune to political risks, as its stock market plummeted 48% after poll results, sending a shockwave across financial markets. The Argentinian peso also felt the heat after it closed more than 7% weaker against the dollar. China’s economy showed signs of struggle after growth in industrial output and retail sales data slowed.
  • European stock markets extended their losing streak. The decline was led by Britain’s FTSE 100, which dropped to a six-month low. Further gloom  prevailed in the markets as Germany’s economy shrank in the second quarter, driven by a decline in exports, signaling recession.
  • Within commodities, gold rallied, while oil continued to tumble. This activity echoed prevailing market sentiment.
  • Shares of General Electric tanked. The stock plummeted 11% after a private financial investigator accused the firm of indulging in accounting fraud at a magnitude higher than that of the Enron scandal.
  • Inflation accelerated in the US. The Consumer Price Index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.30% last month from June, which was driven by the Energy, Health Care, and Real Estate sectors and the transportation industry.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 8.19.19

Disclosure: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ending 8/9/2019

By Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates
  • Domestic equities were down for the week, with small cap stocks decreasing the most. International equities ended the week in negative territory, falling more than their domestic counterparts, with emerging markets stocks faring the worst.
  • Treasury yields across the curve declined through end-of-day Thursday, with longer-term yields falling more than shorter-term yields.
  • The US dollar weakened against a basket of major trade partners’ currencies during the week, reflecting increased fears over currency wars.
  • Commodities contracted for the week, as declining energy prices outweighed the strong week for gold.
  • In other economic news, The Producer Price Index for final demand increased by 0.20% last month, bringing the final demand index up 1.70% for the 12 months ended in July. The muted producer prices may be a result of the prolonged global trade war, which some analysts believe is causing a slowdown in manufacturing.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 8.12.19

Disclosure: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

EWM Weekly Capital Market Highlights for Week Ending 8/2/2019

By Financial Markets & Economy, Weekly Capital Market Updates
  • Global equity markets were led by Japan and Turkey, which posted returns between 19 and 24 basis points through Thursday. India and Argentina, down more than 3.10% and 4.30%, respectively, were the worst performers.
  • The Treasury yield curve shifted downward through Thursday. Yields across the curve fell precipitously in response to the Fed’s rate cut.
  • Commodities were broadly down on the week. Oil, agriculture, and precious and industrial metals were down on the week.
  • The US dollar strengthened against a basket of major trade partners’ currencies. The dollar index remains at highs not seen since 2017.
  • In other economic news: The US trade deficit grew in January as exports fell due to ongoing trade tensions. Construction spending fell 1.30% in June in a greater drop than economists had forecast. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey approached post-crisis heights in July, as unemployment remains low.

Click here to download the complete weekly report: EWMWeeklyReview 8.5.19

Disclosure: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.